IT MUST BE THE WEATHER – AT 8:42 A.M. ET:  In the last few days we've had to report some problems in the GOP drive for control of the Senate.  Now there's a blip in Alaska.  Incumbent GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski, defeated for renomination in the Republican primary by Joe Miller, decided to run as an independent, and is close to pulling off a Joe Lieberman, who did the same thing in Connecticut and won.  From The Weekly Standard:

Is Lisa Murkowski on the way to writing herself back in to the U.S. Senate?

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Alaska shows Republican Joe Miller with 35% support and Murkowski, the incumbent senator he defeated in the state’s GOP Primary now running as a write-in candidate, with 34% of the vote. Democrat Scott McAdams runs third with 27%. One percent (1%) prefers another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

The race remains Solid Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings because if Murkowski wins she is expected to caucus with the GOP in the Senate.

But the reality is that Murkowski is the fourth most liberal Republican in the Senate, and is not a reliable vote for our side.  However, her name is popular in Alaska and Joe Miller occasionally stumbles, probably accounting for the tight race.  There are certain incumbents who have the political draw to pull off an upset if their party rejects them.  Lieberman is the prime example.  We'll see on election night if Alaska has produced another one.

October 15, 2010